By Anurag Punetha
“India’s playing 5D chess in the Indo-Pacific while everyone else is still figuring out how to move the pawns. Checkmate, or should we say ‘Chai-mate’?” This playful observation captures the essence of India’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific, particularly in the context of its evolving relationship with Australia.
However, beneath this light-hearted quip lies a more complex and significant reality. The bond between India and Australia is not just a tale of Cricket and Chai, but a crucial strategic alliance shaped by both countries’ shared concerns about China’s rising dominance in the Pacific region.
India and Australia’s economic cooperation is advancing at an unprecedented pace. The cornerstone of this relationship is the Australia-India Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement (AI-ECTA), which came into effect in November 2022. This agreement not only created a more equitable trade balance but also resulted in tangible benefits. For instance, Australian exports worth approximately $30 billion have entered India tariff-free, while Australians have saved around $225 million on goods imported from India.
Economic relations are poised to deepen further with ongoing negotiations for a Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CECA), which will expand mutual trade and investment opportunities. As India continues to rise as the world’s fastest-growing economy, and Australia seeks to diversify its markets beyond China, this partnership holds great promise.
The new MoU signed between Invest India and Austrade will foster innovation, investments, and technology exchanges. Together, these economic initiatives are strengthening the two nations’ ability to resist coercive trade tactics—a strategy China has employed against nations it perceives as competitors or non-compliant with its ambitions.
In a geopolitical chessboard with an aggressive and assertive player like China, the India-Australia economic partnership serves as a critical lever to reduce dependence on Beijing and secure the Indo-Pacific’s economic future. Trade relations are not just about financial gains but also a pathway to ensure long-term stability and resilience in an increasingly polarised region.
Beyond economic cooperation, the strategic dialogue between India and Australia is crucial in countering China’s hegemonic ambitions. The second India-Australia 2+2 Foreign and Defence Ministerial Dialogue reaffirmed both countries’ commitment to enhancing security ties, with a specific focus on maritime security in the Indo-Pacific. This alignment is driven by shared concerns over regional stability, including the expansion of China’s military presence and its assertiveness in the South China Sea.
Both India and Australia, along with the United States and Japan as part of the QUAD alliance, are working to create a counterbalance to China’s influence. The Quad, with its emphasis on a “free, open, and inclusive Indo-Pacific,” serves as a strategic framework through which like-minded democracies can coordinate responses to China’s expansionist strategies. India and Australia are key pillars in this alliance, providing both military and diplomatic heft to the QUAD’s efforts.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which extends its economic and political reach across Asia and Africa, presents a major challenge. By leveraging its financial power, China has deepened its influence over smaller Indo-Pacific nations. However, India and Australia offer an alternative—a model based on rules, transparency, and mutual respect. Their commitment to strengthening maritime security and regional stability sends a clear message: the Indo-Pacific will not fall under Beijing’s unilateral control.
While the partnership between India and Australia is largely positive, it is not without challenges. One major concern is how this evolving relationship impacts domestic industries, particularly in Australia. Despite the AI-ECTA’s success in reducing the trade gap, there have been murmurs within certain Australian sectors that are not benefiting equally from the agreement. Industries that are heavily reliant on China may view the shift towards India with scepticism. These internal concerns must be addressed to ensure sustained and widespread support for the partnership across Australia.
Moreover, the strategic partnership between India and Australia, while mutually beneficial, is partially driven by defensive postures. Both nations are responding to the perceived threat posed by China’s assertiveness, particularly in the Indo-Pacific. While this provides a strong foundation for cooperation, it also introduces complexities into the relationship, especially when dealing with diplomatic sensitivities involving other regional powers. Balancing the benefits of economic and strategic collaboration with the risks posed by these broader geopolitical dynamics will be critical for the future of this partnership.
The Quad’s focus on security, infrastructure, and capacity-building in the Indo-Pacific region is an essential counter to China’s growing influence. India and Australia, as key players within the QUAD, will have a more crucial role in the future in ensuring that the Indo-Pacific remains a region governed by international law, respect for sovereignty, and freedom of navigation. The partnership within the QUAD offers a multilateral framework through which India and Australia can align their strategies and deepen cooperation. As the world watches the Indo-Pacific, the partnership between India and Australia within the Quad is not just important—it is vital for the future of global stability.
As both nations navigate the complexities of the Indo-Pacific, their partnership represents more than just a regional alignment—it is a beacon of hope for a balanced, multipolar world. By strengthening economic ties, enhancing security cooperation, and contributing to multilateral frameworks like the Quad, India and Australia are creating a resilient alliance capable of withstanding the pressures of a changing geopolitical landscape.
As one commentator quipped, “It’s about ensuring there’s someone to share the cricket banter with over a good cup of tea or coffee – and maybe teach Aussies a thing or two about spice tolerance!” But beyond the humour, there is a serious message: India and Australia are laying the foundation for a future in which the Indo-Pacific remains free, open, and prosperous for all.
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