By Anurag Punetha
“So much labour, so much pain, finally it’s a boy.” This tweet captured the relief and exhaustion surrounding Trump’s return to the presidency, likening it to the anticipation of a birth.
For many, it’s a hard-won victory; for others, a moment to reflect on what lies ahead. Comparing the outcome to the birth of a “boy” adds a traditional sentiment to the scene, reflecting both change and enduring values in modern politics.
The American political drama has reached its peak, with Trump defeating Kamala Harris in an election that captivated Indian families. For some Indian seniors avidly following political discussions on WhatsApp, it’s a reason to celebrate, while their children in Silicon Valley nervously ponder their H1-B visa futures.
During his first term, Trump advocated for stronger defence ties with India, securing significant agreements that boosted India’s standing in the Indo-Pacific. His stance on China was aligned with India’s concerns about China’s assertive moves in Asia. With Trump’s return, India may once again benefit from U.S. support against regional threats, particularly from China.
However, Trump’s individualistic foreign policy approach adds an element of uncertainty. While supportive of India’s stance on China, his tendency to change direction on a whim can cause concern, as any alliance or promise could be reversed with a tweet.
Trump’s views on the Russia-Ukraine conflict may bring unexpected advantages for India. With a preference for a more pragmatic approach to Russia, he may reduce pressure on India to distance itself from Moscow. India has balanced its relationships with both Russia and the West, and a less confrontational U.S. stance on Russia could allow India to pursue its own interests with less interference from Washington.
Another area of potential benefit is Trump’s hands-off approach to other countries’ domestic policies. Unlike some past U.S. administrations, which raised concerns over India’s internal matters—such as the revocation of Article 370 in Kashmir—Trump’s presidency was relatively quiet on these issues. For Modi’s government, this could mean fewer external complications on domestic policies, allowing India more freedom in governance without criticism from the U.S.
Yet Trump’s protectionist stance on trade could be a challenge. His criticism of countries he feels “take advantage” of U.S. markets includes India. High tariffs and a focus on reducing trade imbalances could impact sectors like Indian IT, pharmaceuticals, and textiles, all of which depend heavily on American markets. India may face tough negotiations if Trump pushes for terms that prioritise American industries.
Similarly, Trump’s immigration policies present both challenges and hopes for India. In his previous term, he imposed restrictions on H1-B visas, affecting Indian skilled workers and the Indian IT sector. Trump’s return raises questions about the future of these policies, which could again impact Indian professionals aiming to work in the U.S. and the companies relying on their skills.
Trump’s transactional approach to security alliances also brings potential risks. His ambiguous stance on issues like Taiwan’s security has left some Asian allies uneasy. While Trump’s tough talk on China resonates with India’s concerns, any weakening of U.S. support for its regional allies could create a void, possibly emboldening China. India may need to balance a close partnership with the U.S. while also preparing for scenarios where it stands more independently in Asia.
Ultimately, Trump’s return offers both opportunities and risks for India. Strengthened defence ties, fewer interferences on domestic issues, and potential flexibility with Russia are positives, but Trump’s unpredictability, trade protectionism, and immigration restrictions may complicate India’s path. India’s leaders will need to stay agile, ready to adapt to the shifting dynamics of Trump’s policies while maximising gains and mitigating risks.
In a sense, India’s relationship with Trump’s America will be like a typical Indian joint family—complicated, sometimes turbulent, yet held together by shared interests. New Delhi’s strategy could echo the advice of an Indian grandmother: “adjust a little, stand firm a little.” India will need to navigate Trump’s unpredictable policies while ensuring its own priorities remain clear. As they say in Hindi, “Dosti bhi, business bhi” (Friendship as well as business).
In the Modi-Trump 2.0 era, diplomacy will resemble a lively duet, where India must deftly play both offence and defence. As a seasoned diplomat might muse, “In diplomacy, as in cricket, it’s not just about hitting every ball, but knowing which ones to let pass.” For India, the game with Trump has begun anew.
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