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May 3 election: Victoria holds key as swing seats become make-or-break for Albanese government

Key issues anticipated to dominate the campaign include the rising cost of living, housing affordability, and energy policies.

Australians are set to cast their votes in a federal election on May 3, following Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s announcement after meeting with Governor-General Sam Mostyn. This initiates a five-week campaign during which all 150 seats in the House of Representatives and 40 of the 76 Senate seats will be contested. ​

The election is poised to be a closely contested race between the incumbent center-left Labor Party, led by Prime Minister Albanese, and the opposition center-right Coalition, headed by Peter Dutton.

Key issues anticipated to dominate the campaign include the rising cost of living, housing affordability, and energy policies. Both major parties have outlined differing approaches to address these challenges, with Labor emphasising economic recovery plans and renewable energy initiatives. At the same time, the Coalition proposes public sector cuts and advocates for nuclear power and additional gas-fired generation. ​

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Victoria emerges as a critical battleground in this election, with several marginal seats that could determine the overall outcome. Labor faces significant challenges in retaining key electorates such as Chisholm, Corangamite, and Dunkley, where slim margins make them highly competitive. In Chisholm, for instance, Labor MP Carina Garland is defending her seat against former Liberal MP Katie Allen, with boundary adjustments further tightening the contest. ​

The Coalition aims to capitalise on perceived vulnerabilities within the Labor Party in Victoria. Recent reports suggest that Labor’s brand in the state is under strain, with internal critiques highlighting challenges in governance and public perception. Economic concerns, particularly related to cost-of-living pressures and housing affordability, are prominent issues that both parties will need to address to sway Victorian voters. ​

Additionally, the rise of independent candidates and minor parties adds complexity to the electoral landscape. The so-called “teal” independents, while often championed for their stance on climate action and political integrity, have increasingly faced criticism for aligning with far-left agendas that can sow division within multicultural communities.

Their positions on contentious social issues have at times alienated voters from diverse backgrounds who value cultural cohesion and community harmony. Furthermore, their selective advocacy and reluctance to address issues of religious freedom and community safety have raised concerns about their true commitment to representing all constituents.

As the election approaches, many in Victoria are questioning whether the teals’ policies genuinely serve the interests of their multicultural electorates or merely echo the ideological agendas of their affluent, progressive supporters.

Recent polls suggest a tight contest, with neither major party expected to secure an outright majority, potentially leading to a minority government. This scenario underscores the significant influence that independent candidates and minor parties may wield in the formation of the next government.

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The campaign will also traverse key battleground seats across New South Wales, where marginal electorates could determine the election’s outcome. PM and the Opposition leader both are expected to focus their efforts on these regions to sway undecided voters.

As the nation prepares for this pivotal election, voters are encouraged to engage with the campaign, assess the policies presented, and participate actively in shaping Australia’s future direction.

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