As the nation approaches the federal election scheduled for May 3, 2025, recent polls indicate a narrow lead for the Labor Party over the Coalition. Despite this, senior Labor figures are positioning the party as the underdog in the electoral race.
The latest Newspoll, published by The Australian, shows Labor ahead with a 51% to 49% advantage on a two-party preferred basis, marking a two-point gain for Labor over the past three weeks.
Labor’s primary vote has risen to 33%, while the Coalition’s has declined to 37%. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s approval rating has improved to 43%, though he maintains a net negative approval rating of minus nine.
In contrast, Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s approval has declined to a net negative of minus 18. Albanese has also extended his lead as the preferred prime minister, holding an 11-point margin over Dutton.
Other polls echo similar trends. A YouGov MRP poll suggests Labor is on track to win 75 seats, just one short of a majority, while the Coalition is projected to secure 60 seats. The Resolve Political Monitor poll indicates a 50-50 split between the two major parties but shows Albanese leading as the preferred prime minister over Dutton by 42% to 33%.
Despite these figures, Labor leaders are framing their campaign with an underdog narrative. This strategic positioning aims to mobilise their base and caution against complacency among supporters. Political analysts suggest that portraying the party as an underdog can be an effective tactic to galvanise voter turnout and maintain campaign momentum.
As the election campaign unfolds, both major parties are intensifying their efforts to address key voter concerns, including the cost of living, housing affordability, and economic stability. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether Labor’s underdog strategy resonates with the electorate and influences the election outcome.
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