By Sagina Walyat
The return of Narendra Modi to office for a third term, despite a reduced mandate, marks a pivotal moment in India’s geopolitical strategy.
Additionally, the continuity of key cabinet positions, with External Affairs Minister Dr S. Jaishankar and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval retaining their posts, underscores India’s unwavering foreign policy stance, particularly toward China.
The Sino-India Relations under Modi’s regime are evolving. Sensing an opportunity in Modi’s narrower mandate, China has escalated its aggressive rhetoric.
Despite India’s longstanding adherence to the One China policy, which was reinforced in Nehru’s era and reiterated in 2003 and 2008, there has been a notable silence on this policy since 2008, causing discomfort in Beijing. The ongoing four-year standoff at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) has further solidified India’s resolve to counter Chinese aggression.
Relations between India and China appear frosty as Modi begins his third term. While global leaders swiftly congratulated Modi on his coalition government, Xi Jinping’s delayed response, conveyed through the Foreign Ministry spokesperson and later the Chinese premier, starkly contrasted with previous terms, highlighting the growing rift between the two leaders.
Strengthening Ties with Taiwan: A Subtle yet Bold Move
The newly elected Taiwanese President extended congratulations to Modi on social media, to which Modi responded with diplomatic caution, avoiding terms like “President,” “Taiwan,” and “Indo-Pacific.” This interaction, though restrained, marked the first public engagement between the leaders of India and Taiwan, signaling a subtle yet bold move by Modi.
Beijing officially and immediately protested India’s engagement with the Taiwanese President, and with the Global Times, the official newspaper of CCP, warned that Modi’s actions could make India pay a price. Nonetheless, Modi 3.0 appears committed to maintaining its strategic approach towards China, evidenced by the retention of key ministers and ongoing military buildup at the Himalayan borders.
India’s Strategic Pivot on Tibet
A week after Modi’s swearing-in, reports emerged of his administration preparing a stronger stance against Chinese aggression by reigniting the Tibet independence debate.
The Indian government has approved the renaming of 30 places in Tibet, including 4 rivers, 12 mountains, 11 villages, and a lake, based on original Tibetan names sourced from historical texts.
This move is not seen by experts as merely a tit-for-tat response to China’s renaming of India’s territory Arunachal Pradesh but see it is as a well-researched effort to assert historical, genetic and cultural ties with reference taken from original Tibetan and Indian texts.
Historically, India and Tibet were peaceful neighbors with strong cultural, genetic, and religious connections, serving as a buffer between India and China until China’s occupation of Tibet in 1950s. This new development could garner global support and signifies India’s strategic shift from its traditional adherence to the One China policy, a move certain to provoke China.
India’s Assertive Leadership and Diplomatic Initiatives
Under Modi’s assertive leadership, India has become a significant challenger to Chinese aggression, not only along the LAC but across the wider Indo-Pacific region.
China now faces a delicate balancing act between potential hostility and diplomatic engagement, evidenced by Xi’s lack of direct congratulations to India’s new government and the Global Times’s soft urge to India to send positive signals towards improving Sino-India relations, but India maintains that bilateral ties cannot progress without resolving the border standoff. This deadlock poses a strategic dilemma for China, as backing down could embolden India in other areas of bilateral relations.
The recent visit by a U.S. delegation to India, after US congress passed the bill “Resolve Tibet Act’, included a meeting with the Dalai Lama, underscores the active stance of India despite understanding the sensitivities involved, particularly for India, given its extensive land border with China. Unsurprisingly, the strong protest and criticism from China was immediate and called this visit as interference in internal Chinese matters.
Quiet Diplomacy: Reviving Tibet’s Independence Movement
India’s recent strategic moves and US’s planned visit with India’s agreement, indicate a deliberate opening of the Tibet front to distract China’s attention from Taiwan. The inclusion of Nancy Pelosi in the U.S. delegation visiting the Dalai Lama highlights the intensifying focus on Tibet.
China’s aggressive response to former U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in 2022 sparked significant tensions, following Pelosi’s departure, China initiated military exercises encircling Taiwan, leading to a frosty phase in U.S.-China relations, and without any surprise similar response can be anticipated in the future, and India’s willingness to let USA use its territory for this theater demonstrates its assertiveness to counter Chinese aggression. Now, the focus shifts to China’s reaction, as the stakes are high for India. However, whatever the outcome, it will be potentially critical for regional dynamics.
India is strategically employing a systematic approach to challenge the One China policy. This includes reigniting Tibet’s non-violent independence movement on the global stage, coinciding with the U.S. delegation’s visit and their agreement to meet the Dalai Lama on Indian soil. However, the moves are warmly being welcomed by Tibetans in India.
India’s strategic shift signals a refusal to be intimidated and readiness to challenge China’s ambitions through diplomacy and global partnerships. This move could recalibrate regional power dynamics, positioning India as a pivotal player in fostering stability and advocating for oppressed regions like Tibet, while also expanding its diplomatic space with Taiwan.
The global reaction will be crucial in determining the success of this strategy. If major powers and international organizations back these actions, it could lead to a significant diplomatic victory for New Delhi. Conversely, a lukewarm response might necessitate a reassessment of India’s approach.
Ultimately, India’s decision to spotlight Tibet’s independence movement is a calculated maneuver to counter China’s aggression on a broader scale, with the potential for substantial diplomatic gains.
Contributor: Sagina Walyat writes on India-China Relations, a researcher, an AsiaGlobal Fellow, The University of Hongkong and a delegate of Australia-India Youth Dialogue (AIYD).
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed within this article are the personal opinions of the author. The Australia Today is not responsible for the accuracy, completeness, suitability, or validity of any information in this article. All information is provided on an as-is basis. The information, facts, or opinions appearing in the article do not reflect the views of The Australia Today and The Australia Today News does not assume any responsibility or liability for the same.
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