Australia is experiencing a “baby recession,” with births across the country falling by 4.6 per cent year-on-year, according to a recent analysis by KPMG Australia.
In 2023, the number of births reached its lowest level since 2006, driven by the growing cost-of-living pressures affecting younger Australians.
Throughout 2023, Australia saw 289,100 births, a stark decrease from the 315,200 births recorded during the 2021 post-lockdown spike.
KPMG Urban Economist Terry Rawnsley noted that while weak economic growth often leads to reduced birth rates, the current cost-of-living crisis is having a particularly profound impact.
“Birth rates provide insight into long-term population growth as well as the current confidence of Australian families,” Rawnsley explained.
“We haven’t seen such a sharp drop in births in Australia since the economic stagflation of the 1970s, which coincided with the initial widespread adoption of the contraceptive pill.”
Rawnsley added that following the uncertainty of pandemic lockdowns, many people who had delayed having children decided to start families.
The record-low unemployment rate and economic stimulus money had encouraged this trend. However, the current rise in living expenses is now putting pressure on household finances, causing many Australians to delay starting or expanding their families. This combination of the pandemic and rapid economic changes explains the spike and subsequent sharp decline in birth rates over the past four years.
“This is against the backdrop of a long-term decline in the total fertility rate, which has decreased from over two children per woman in 2008 to 1.6 in 2023,” said Rawnsley.
Capital Cities See Pronounced Declines
The decline in birth rates is more pronounced in Australia’s capital cities:
- Sydney births dropping to 60,860 down 8.6 per cent from 2019
- Melbourne with 56,270 births down 7.3 per cent
- Perth with 25,020 births down 6.0 per cent
- Brisbane with 30,250 births down 4.3 per cent
Notably, Canberra was the only capital city to maintain steady birth rates, with 5,530 births in both 2019 and 2023.
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